With the climatological peak of hurricane season just a day ago, the tropics were not deviating from the norm. There were two tropical storms in the open Atlantic Friday morning along with multiple waves and disturbances that have the potential to develop. But there is one close to home that is being watched.
The above map shows an update from the National Hurricane on a trough of low pressure that was becoming more organized. From their Friday morning update:
In addition, surface observations indicate that pressures have fallen over the area since yesterday and, along with wind data, suggest that a broad area of low pressure could be forming between the northwestern Bahamas and South Florida.– NHC, 11:25 a.m. ET Friday update
The disturbance is expected to move westward, crossing the Bahamas and South Florida Friday into Saturday. As it nears South Florida, it has a potential to become a tropical depression according to the NHC. They give the disturbance a 60% chance of development over the next two days and a 70% chance over the next five days.
As of late Friday morning, convection was increasing over the Bahamas with reasonable banding and cirrus outflow on the southern side of the disturbance (thanks likely to the upper-level low to the south).
As it stands, wind shear does not appear to be an inhibiting factor for further development, and sea surface temperatures are above average in the region.
Ensemble members Friday morning were not being aggressive with development of the feature with respect to wind speed. The majority of the European model ensemble members have the feature moving northwestward through the weekend in to early next week.
As of this update, the largest threat from the low will be heavy rain along the eastern Gulf coast. The Weather Prediction Center has the five-day rainfall forecast along the coast ranging mostly between 2 to 4 inches.
Those in the Bahamas, South Florida, and the Gulf of Mexico coastline should continue to monitor the progress of the disturbance through the weekend and early next week. Be sure to have a trusted source to obtain timely weather information.