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Low in Bay of Campeche Has a Chance of Development

The National Hurricane Center has been keeping an eye on a low off the eastern Mexican coastline in the Bay of Campeche with a 60% chance of development since last week. The NHC placed odds of development at 60% as of Monday afternoon.

The broad area of low pressure has not moved much over the last few days as weak steering currents have been keeping it in place. Wind shear has been relatively low in the area, but the low has remained disorganized. Convection has stayed away from the center of the low, but the disturbance does have good banding on the northern half of it.

Visible satellite imagery from GOES 16 showing the low Monday afternoon. (Source: College of DuPage)

Ridging in the mid-levels is expected to amplify over western Cuba, which will allow for the disturbance to travel more north-northwestward as we get into the middle of the week.

The GFS model run for Tuesday afternoon showing an anomalous ridge of high pressure in the mid levels (deep red) over western Cuba. This ridge would push the disturbance north/northwestward in the near term. (Source:

The moisture associated with it will likely run into Texas and Louisiana.

Predicted rainfall totals from Monday evening through Thursday evening. (Source: NOAA)

This will likely bring rainfall into the region with totals of 1 to 3 inches or more in many locations in western Texas and Louisiana through Thursday evening.

The moisture would likely then move eastward bringing higher rain totals to parts of the Southeast. Parts of Florida and Georiga, where some locations are going through dry conditions, could see at least an inch or more of rain during by next Monday evening. That’s a bit far down the road, so trends will need to be monitored.