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Low in the Bahamas will bring rain to Sunshine State

Visible satellite imagery from GOES 16 of the low Tuesday afternoon.

A weak upper-level low, centered over the Bahamas Tuesday evening, may bring the potential for heavy rain across parts of the Florida peninsula late week.

Satellite and water vapor imagery, as well as upper-level maps, indicated a weak low-pressure center aloft. Surface maps show a weak wave co-located with the upper-level feature. This is firing up showers and, as of Tuesday evening, some convection. To the west of the low, dry air could be seen around it moving through Southeast Florida.

In the upper levels, a ridge of high pressure was in place across the Southeast United States. This has been keeping the weather fairly tranquil and quite warm. This will weaken and move easterly, pushing the low west and northwest by Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Precipitable water amounts, per the latest GFS model run, may be as high as 2 inches – well above normal for this time of year. This means the low will bring plenty of juicy air over most of the state, allowing the potential for heavy rain.

The GFS guiance model’s depiction of rain moving into the state as the upper-level low moves into the area.

The average of the ensemble models differ slightly, but rainfall totals in the peninsula could range between 1 to 2 inches between Wednesday evening and Sunday evening. Locally higher amounts are possible. Rainfall totals of an inch or less are possible in the Panhandle and Big Bend. Rain chances in the Tallahassee area will range from 40 to 50 percent starting Thursday through Sunday. The odds for rain will be in the likely category for places like Miami and Orlando late week.

Those in the region should keep an umbrella handy Thursday through the weekend.